Low Three Quarter Media

Written by Josh Bookbinder

One of my favorite prospects recently is the enigma that is Owen Caissie. Before the season, there was a great Fangraphs article and interview by David Laurila talking about Caissie’s impressive raw potential and lack of eye-popping production so far. Eight months later, the situation looks a little different.

Caissie is a second-round pick from 2020, which is telling in itself. The shortened draft had so many external factors that it’s difficult to put too much stock into those picks. Adding onto that, he was at draft an incredibly raw 17-year-old from Ontario who had never played in a night game and had faced relatively poor competition. The Padres saw raw power and a lottery ticket, and took it.

Before he played a game for the Padres, Caissie was shipped off to the Cubs in a trade for Yu Darvish. When 2021 came, he looked pretty good, but not great, as a teenager in Rookie ball and single-A Myrtle Beach. 2022 didn’t change much; .254/.349/.402/.751 in High-A is fine, but doesn’t inspire glowing reviews. His tool grades coming into 2023 showed great raw power, a poor hit tool, poor speed, and slightly above average defense. (Note: MLB Pipeline graded the poor tools as average, but the sentiment still stands.) For a corner outfielder, that profile doesn’t do much to stand out, and combined with the previous two years’ stats, it was no surprise to see him drop on some rankings list and fall out of some evaluators’ good graces.

2023 changed some things. Caissie joined up with the Canadian WBC team and spending some time around some big-leaguers must have helped somehow, because he got off to a torrid start at AA Tennessee, hitting .307/.405/.613/1.018 in April and then tacking on 7 home runs in May. He started slowing down and struggled through June, and immediately proved it a blip on the radar by putting up his best month yet with a 1.093 OPS in July. August and September were more of the same, and as of this article’s writing, Caissie’s Tennessee Smokies are preparing for the playoffs.

While the final numbers don’t lead the minors or anything of the sort, they do show vast improvement for a 21-year old player with a monster frame and room to grow (6’4″ 190). There are also tangible differences in approach and changes in mechanics detailed in the Laurila article that show that the improved numbers might be here to stay. Lastly, but certainly not least, the Cubs are in the middle of a seemingly quick rebuild – maybe a little too quick -and Caissie is just 21 and just tore up AA over a significant sample size.

Pay particular attention to the doubles in addition to the slash line jumps. That’s not the slash of a 30 hit tool, and .399 OBP is enough proof of an eye tool should it stay similar moving up in level. Plus, old-school and eye test people will love the RBI count and significant average jumps, as well as the smooth swing and comfortable actions in the box.

Obviously there are still concerns. Some are simple and easily remedied, like the 7/9 SB/CS ratio (just stop running, big man!). Some are a little more worrisome, like the brutal R/L split shown below¹. One fear is that seeing these numbers, the Cubs decide to make Caissie a platoon bat and rush his development if his vs. RHP hitting is ready soon. And of course on the other side, there’s the issue of age and control. The Cubs might see no issue keeping Caissie down while older, less controllable players get chances, and Caissie continues to season. All legitimate concerns one might have about something like rostering him in a dynasty fantasy league, or anointing him before the situation plays out. However, regardless of the negatives, he’s still someone to keep an eye on.

It’s possible that Caissie is moved if the Cubs are in contention next year, or finds his way into playing time even through a crowded Cubs outfield; keep an eye on him moving into next Spring Training. His makeup seems outstanding and he seems humble, kind, and focused on honing his craft, so maybe consider rooting for the big Canadian with hair as red as his nation’s flag.

Take a look at Caissie crush three bombs earlier this season here.