Low Three Quarter Media

By Coleman Smith

On the surface, Isaac Paredes had an amazing 2023 season. Over 30 homers, nearly 100 RBI, and finished 12th in baseball in wRC+, a metric designed to weight the outcomes of hits based on how many runs they “create”. By these numbers, Paredes appears to be one of the top hitters in Major League Baseball. But if you take a look at his baseball savant page, you may come to a different conclusion. 

The rise of baseball savant has been somewhat controversial, with debates raging online over players like Bryce Elder whose pages are filled with blue circles indicating poor percentile rankings for many “advanced stats” despite their impressive performances on the field. Taking a look at Paredes profile, we see a similar story: a player who performed well in 2023, but may be “due for regression” if we base our evaluation off the circles seen above. In fact, Paredes only ranks at or above average in 4 metrics: Chase%, Whiff%, K%, and BB%. Chase% and BB% are both plate discipline metrics, letting us know Paredes has a solid walk rate that is supported by an acceptable eye at the plate. K% and Whiff% are also similar, with his Whiff% especially showing Paredes has a knack for putting the bat on the ball. Where we see lots of blue is on what we call “quality of contact” metrics. One of the most important numbers of these, especially for power hitters, is Barrel %.

Statcast defines a Barrel as: “batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.” To be a barrel, a ball must be hit at least 98 mph, and at that speed it must be hit with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees. As the exit velocity increases, so does the angle at which the ball can be launched for a barrel as shown above in the yellow region. This metric correlates very heavily with home run rate: 

So how is it that a player like Paredes can finish t-20th in Home Runs in 2023 while sporting a 26th percentile barrel rate? Looking at the trend line, we see some familiar power hitters in the top right, as well as some soft hitting contact guys in the bottom left. Some players appear to be outliers, like Matt Chapman at the bottom of the graph and Jose Siri above the line. However if we continue to shift our gaze further left, we see a lonely red dot off by itself far above the line.

This is where we find Isaac Paredes. For all players with a Barrel % below 4%, Nick Senzel had the next highest Home Runs per Plate Appearance at just 3.9%, compared to Paredes 5.4%. In fact, Paredes HR/PA is on par with players like Mookie Betts (5.7%) and Ronald Acuna Jr (5.6%). So how is Paredes able to achieve this power despite such a low Barrel %? 

It all starts with where Paredes is putting the ball in play. In 2023, Paredes ranked 4th among qualified hitters in highest average launch angle, showing an ability to consistently put the ball in the air. Putting the ball in the air is one of the most important things a player can do consistently as balls in the air are far more dangerous than balls on the ground. The SLG on ground balls in 2023 in MLB was just .273, compared to .845 for fly balls. However, there is another factor that can heavily influence just how much a hitter is able to take advantage of their fly balls.

Among all qualified hitters in 2023, Paredes tied Ozzie Albies for the highest Pull% in the league, and it’s very evident what he’s trying to do with a glance at his spray chart. In the old days of baseball, this would be a knock against Paredes, as it used to be a positive if a player “used the whole field”. But modern ball-in-play data allows us to see how important it is for a hitter to pull the baseball. The table below is for all Barrels in MLB in the 2023 season, showing how much more damage is done when you hit the ball hard to the pull side in the air.

Batted Ball Direction	SLG
Pull	3.182
Middle	1.784
Opposite	2.245

It’s not only important to hit barrels, it’s important to hit them to the right part of the ballpark to maximize their potential. Looking back at our HR/PA graph, we can also use this to explain Matt Chapman’s underperformance of his Barrel % compared to his home run rate. Among players with at least 25 Barrels last season, Chapman ranks second only to Christian Yelich in % of Barrels hit to the Middle or Opposite side of the field. This severely limits their power potential on their hardest hit balls being hit in a direction optimal to create runs. With Paredes, we see the opposite of this phenomena, with him ranking first in the league among players with at least 10 barrels in % of Barrels hit to the pull side. This allows Paredes to take maximum advantage of his Barrels and get the most out of them, despite not hitting as many as more typical power hitters. This is what allows Paredes to outperform expected stats like Statcasts xwOBA and xHR, which don’t account for which part of the field the ball is hit to. These statistics take Paredes raw barrel rate and exit velocity and compares it to the major league average, where it ranks poorly, and expects his numbers to fall back closer to average based on these metrics. By optimizing where he hits the ball, Paredes has, and can continue to, outperform expected data. 

The Rays have a history of targeting and developing this skill, like when they swapped with the Tigers for Paredes and when they dealt Nathaniel Lowe to the Rangers after he performed well in the high minors and major leagues for the Rays. Lowe has always pulled the ball at a below average rate, and his pull rate fell even further after being dealt to the Rangers. The Rays sought out Paredes from the Tigers after he hit just .215 with a .592 OPS in 57 games across 2 seasons in Detroit, sending Austin Meadows north for Paredes and a comp pick after the 2021 season. Paredes would improve in 2022 in Tampa, but take a big leap in 2023, meanwhile Meadows has missed almost all of the last 2 years in Detroit, playing poorly in the 42 games he has been on the field. Paredes’ pull rate would jump by 4.8% in his first season as a Ray to 49.2%, and rise again to 52.7% in 2023. The Rays continue to raid other teams’ bargain bin for players who blossom in the tight confines of Tropicana, while continuing to operate with one of the leagues lowest payrolls. Churning surplus value out of cheap, controllable players continues to be the formula for sustained success in Major League Baseball, and the Rays continue to be the organization leading the pack while others attempt to crack the formula.

Whether Paredes can utilize his unique play style to produce results again in 2024 will be interesting to watch, but he may be doing in another ballpark. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi is reporting the Rays will be listening to offers at this weeks Winter Meetings, with the Mariners and Blue Jays rumored to be suitors. Moving out of Tropicana field has helped some hitters like Willy Adames, who claimed he had trouble seeing pitches at the Trop and showed it with a sizable production increase after a move to Milwaukee. Will Paredes approach translate to T-Mobile Park or the recently renovated Rogers Centre? We may soon be finding out.

Graphs:

Baseball Savant

@JonPGH

Coleman Smith is a writer and co-founder of LowThreeQuarter. To view other recent articles, click one of the links below or view the pages at the top of the screen.