Low Three Quarter Media

By Coleman Smith

2023 Stats: 19 G 18 GS 99.1 IP 3.44 ERA 24.2 K% 4.0% BB%

2024 Steamer Projections: 36 G 23 GS 4.04 ERA 19.9 K% 8.3% BB%

Cristopher Sanchez filled in a rotation spot towards the back end of the 2023 season for a Phillies team that would make another run to the NLCS before falling to the scrappy Diamondbacks. Sanchez was extremely effective, often pitching deep into games and showcasing some swing and miss prowess in the final month of the season with a couple of double digit strikeout games against the division rival Braves and Mets. Fangraphs Roster Resource is currently slotting Sanchez into the Phils 5th rotation spot, which should give him plenty of opportunities to stack up wins behind a potent Philly lineup. Let’s first take a look at his Baseball Savant page to see where he sticks out.

From this graphic, we can see Sanchez is exceptional in 4 categories: Chase %, BB%, GB%, and Extension. Chase rate, sometimes known as O-swing% (or outside zone swing %), measures how often a hitter swings at a pitch thrown outside the strike zone. This is an important metric for creating strikeouts as it can be important with 2 strikes to get swings and misses on “chase” pitches, or pitches thrown around the edges of the strike zone that a hitter would likely swing and miss at or hit very softly. Sanchez also excels at throwing the ball in the strike zone as exemplified by his very low walk rate. He also creates lots of ground balls, in the top 5th percentile in MLB. Sanchez has outstanding extension, which measures how far from the mound towards home plate a pitcher releases a pitch. The closer you release a pitch to home plate, the less time a hitter has to read spin and break to try and identify a pitch.

If we take a look at his pitches, we see that Sanchez profiles as a typical soft tossing, groundball oriented left hander with a sinker/changeup/slider. His sinker isn’t very special, and gets hit hard as well as having a below average groundball rate for a sinker. The pitch also has an extremely high 91.3% contact rate, meaning it’s not very effective on its own at creating outs. What the pitch excels at however, is getting ahead in the count. If we take a look at Sanchez’s Pitcher Plinko, a Baseball Savant tool that breaks down pitch usage by count, we can see how often Sanchez is throwing his Sinker early and when behind in the count.

In 0 strike counts, Sanchez goes to the sinker 57.9% of the time. And while the pitch is hit hard and often when swung at, the pitch was called a strike at a well above average rate. Out of 286 pitchers to throw at least 100 sinkers, he ranked 17th in called strike rate in 2023. The pitch also had a usage rate of 72.4% against LHH, but was far more effective against them, including an 81.1% GB%. This pitch allowed him to get ahead in counts and set up his changeup, the true bread and butter of his arsenal.

Sanchez’s elite groundball rate was due for the most part to his changeup, which posted a very nice 69.6% GB%, placing it narrowly behind Logan Webb. Interestingly, the pitch was thrown in the zone just 27.8% of the time last season, compared to the 39.1% MLB average changeup. Despite this, the pitch had a well above average 23% swinging strike % and 42.8% whiff % (SwStr% is out of all pitches thrown, Whiff% is swings and misses/total swings). The pitch tunnels extremely well with his sinker, with both having between 17-18 inches of horizontal break. If we take a look at the heat maps of both pitches below, we can see how Sanchez uses his command to create whiffs with the changeup playing off the sinker in the bottom of the zone.

By locating the sinker well early in the count to get ahead at the bottom of the zone, Sanchez opens up opportunities to get chases and whiffs on his changeup below the zone. In 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts, he throws the change 54.2% of the time with the SwStr% jumping to 26.3%. This is his go to out pitch and the most effective pitch he throws.

His third and final pitch is his slider, which acts as a more than effective third offering. The slider has an average barrel rate and below average SwStr%, but the 54.9% GB% was also one of the tops in the league. The pitch is thrown almost exclusively to his glove side down in the zone as seen below.

His extremely low slider whiff rate may be caused by its 7th lowest average horizontal movement on a slider thrown by a LHP in 2023, with the pitch acting almost as a tight slurve. While this takes away from the swing and miss potential of the pitch, it does cause the pitch to get hit into the ground more often. You can see an example of the slider below, a swinging strike to Joey Wiemer, and observe how the pitch appears to have little “sweeping” action in the x axis.

One area Sanchez could look to improve his secondaries is his speed differentiation. Both his slider and changeup average around 82-83 mph, allowing hitters to only have to adjust to two speeds despite him throwing three pitches. Adding a pitch or manipulating one of his current ones to create a more diverse velocity gapping could allow Sanchez to keep hitters off balanced and create more strikeouts, an area where he was barely above average in 2023 despite elite chase numbers. By changing speeds more consistently, his chases could more consistently lead to whiffs rather than just soft contact. He excelled last year by using his sinker to get ahead, and his slider and changeup to keep the ball on the ground, with the changeup providing whiffs if needed. But will it be enough over course of a full year?

In 2024, Cristopher Sanchez will anchor the backend of a Phillies rotation aiming for another deep playoff run. After throwing 149 IP between AAA and the big leagues last season, he could easily be stretched out to 160-170 IP next year if he performs well enough to stick in the rotation. Sanchez reminds me of another highly successful starter on a division rival in the Marlins Sandy Alcantara, with both using a sinker/changeup/slider combo to attack hitters and keep the ball on the ground, as well as create chases. Neither pitcher quite has the raw stuff to create swings and misses consistently in favorable counts, instead using great command to create soft contact with favorable launch angles. While their arsenals differ in some ways (Sandy throws a 4 seam fastball as well, but doesn’t feature any pitch >36% Whiff% like Sanchez’s 43% changeup), Sanchez could use Alcantara as a formula for how to turn the pitch to contact ground ball formula into the games highest honor for pitchers. Sanchez could be poised for a strong 2024 season that could surprise some that missed him down the stretch last year, and current projections should keep expectations low.