By Coleman Smith
The Angels selected Detmers out of the University of Louisville with their first pick in the 2020 COVID draft at 10th overall, where he quickly rose through the minors before debuting at the end of 2021. He would be solid in just under 130 IP in 2022, with many fans setting high expectations coming into 2023. And while he would fall short of those lofty goals some set for him last season, under the hood there’s a lot to be excited for in 2024. His ERA may have been up last season, but his K/BB% suggests Detmers may have been better in 2023 and could have room to grow.
| IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | |
| 2022 | 129 | 3.77 | 3.79 | 22.6 | 8.5 |
| 2023 | 148.2 | 4.48 | 4.13 | 26.1 | 9.3 |
Detmers throws 4 pitches primarily, fastball/slider/curveball/changeup. He doesn’t switch things up based on hitter handedness too significantly outside of only throwing his changeup to RHB, but he was a reverse splits pitcher in 2023. Right handed hitters slashed .236/.320/.373 for a .694 OPS with a 3.02 K/BB ratio, while left handed hitters slashed .294/.378/.504 for a .882 OPS with a 1.92 K/BB ratio. He did alter the slider and changeup usage throughout the season in 2023, ultimately throwing less sliders in favor of more changeups. However, his slider was one of his better pitches last season, especially at creating swing and miss. He also added a sweeper mid-season, but never seemed to gain confidence in it enough to increase usage.
Fastball
Detmers’ fastball is pedestrian at best, with average induced vertical break (IVB) and about 10 inches of horizontal break to his glove side. The pitch fails to create swing and miss at a standout level or limit hard contact. It appears to sit in what’s called the “dead zone”, with average IVB and velocity making the pitch easy to pick up. By wOBA, xwOBA, SwStr%, and Whiff%, this was his worst pitch, yet he threw it most often. This could be due to the 53.6% zone %, by far the highest in his arsenal, meaning he used the pitch to try to get ahead.
Slider
His next most thrown pitch was the slider, although usage of this pitch tapered off throughout the season. Despite this, the pitch was solid; 19.8% SwStr% was above average for a LHP slider, and the batted ball data looks good as well, including just a 3.5% barrel rate against the pitch. He did appear to be playing with this pitch a bit throughout the season, as the slider thrown in April-May averaged 90.2 mph before dropping to 88.1 mph June-August and 86.8 mph in September. One thing to note is this high velocity, as Detmers throws his fastball just 94.3 mph on average. The sliders movement profile also places it somewhere in the middle of a cutter and slider. The table below shows the average LHP cutter and slider in 2023, as well as Detmers’ slider.
| Velocity | IVB | HB | |
| 2023 LHP Cutter | 87.1 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 2023 LHP Slider | 84.2 | 1.9 | -5.8 |
| 2023 Detmers Slider | 88.9 | 2.9 | -1.3 |
The pitch was thrown harder than the average cutter, with closer to slider level depth, but cutter level horizontal break. As he threw it slower later in the season it gained some glove side break, but not significantly. This is a strange pitch that was effective but the Angels seemed to be phasing out.
Curveball
Detmers’ curveball is the most interesting pitch in his arsenal. It was his most effective, coming in with a .285 wOBA and .276 xwOBA. It didn’t create a ton of swings and misses, but it did limit hard contact well, posting a 3.5% barrel rate. Where this pitch also excels is shape; the -14.8 inches of IVB ranked among the top 10 LHP curveballs thrown at least 25 times last season, with the 11.5 inches of glove side break also ranking among the best. The movement profile is exceptional for this pitch, and Detmers combines it with a 6.3 ft vertical release point to create a very sharp Vertical Attack Angle (VAA) on the pitch. We’ve talked about VAA a bit with Bryan Woo, discussing how flat VAA fastballs create swings and misses. Detmers has the opposite in play, using his high release point and sharp breaking pitch to create an extremely steep VAA. His VAA also ranked among the top 10 LHP curveballs thrown 25 times, and placed him among names like Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.
This pitch has a ton of potential, but fails to fully reach it due to poor command. The pitch has just a 40.4% ground ball rate despite a steep VAA because he fails to routinely throw it in the lower third of the zone. The pitches movement profile is still good enough to induce weaker contact, but this could be a great pitch if he can command it lower in the strike zone.
Changeup
Detmers’ fourth pitch is his changeup. He all but took the pitch out of his arsenal mid-season, throwing just two in June and none in July, before ramping it back up to his second most thrown pitch in September. The September changeup was slightly slower with less horizontal break, but that could be small sample size. The pitch didn’t have great swinging strike numbers, and over the full season it was hit pretty hard. It’ll be interesting to see what the usage looks like next season, though I doubt it is thrown as much as it was in the last month of 2023.
2024 Outlook
Heading into 2024, the Angels have a lot of work on their hands. The departure of Shohei Ohtani leaves a gap in both the lineup and rotation, and their only acquisition to address pitching so far was signing Zach Plesac. Fangraphs RosterResource currently has Detmers slotted into the opening day starter role in LA, though Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval have more service time.
Detmers is coming off back to back 25 or more start seasons, so workload should be no issue for him. This is likely going to be a very bad Angels team, so the win potential is going to be limited even if he is going deep into games. His strikeout rate has increased every season he’s been in the bigs, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can continue the trend. His current ADP in NFBC drafts is in the 200’s, so the price should be cheap in all formats come draft day. Quality innings can be tough to come by late in drafts, and Detmers should provide strikeouts and volume with the occasional blowup that you can hopefully weather.
| GS | IP | ERA | K% | BB% | |
| Steamer | 31 | 177 | 4.24 | 25.1 | 9.1 |
Steamer is projecting nearly 180 IP with a low 4 ERA and 16% K-B%. These would be very solid numbers from a 200+ ADP draft pick, with potential for even better. Could Detmers have a post-breakout season in 2024 for the middling Angels? You shouldn’t have to pay much to find out!
Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of LowThreeQuarter. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
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