Low Three Quarter Media

By Coleman Smith

2023 Stats: 362 PA .295/.346/.482 .828 OPS 120 wRC+ 46 R 8 HR 40 RBI 24 SB

Jarren Duran enjoyed a successful 2023 season that would mark his 3rd spending time in the big leagues. His 120 wRC+ ranked 8th among primary CF with at least 300 PA, with his 24 SB tying for 6th. After spending the first 11 games of the season in AAA, he was recalled to Boston where he remained until injury ended his season at the end of August. If he can become the Red Sox full time CF in 2024, Duran could finally have a chance to fully prove himself.

His stolen base numbers are backed up by his speed, as Duran was clocked at 29.5 ft/s sprint speed in 2023 by Savant. He also tied for the 9th fastest home plate to first base time in the majors last year at 4.15 seconds, placing him among elite company like Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani. This speed is essential for Duran sticking in CF and can also inflate things like BABIP. Duran also importantly started 35 games at the leadoff spot for the Red Sox in 2023, which is very important for scoring runs. Alex Verdugo, who led off 79 games last year, is in New York now, opening a spot at the top of the lineup. Duran’s season was ended with surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his left big toe on August 30th, but he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. Hopefully this injury doesn’t linger and slow him down at the beginning of the season, because speed is a huge part of Duran’s game.

In 2023, Duran had the most doubles among players with less than 400 PA with 34. The closest player to him was Adam Duvall with just 24. This is largely due to Duran stealing doubles with his aggressiveness and speed. The play below is a 62.7 mph exit velocity flare that travels just 170 feet, yet Duran ends up on second base.

The ball falls weakly over the second basemen’s head into the outfield, but Duran is flying out of the box. By turning balls like this into doubles, not only does he raise his slugging and OPS, he also immediately puts himself in scoring position.

If we look at his spray chart, there are lots of shallow doubles and infield singles. Duran is an aggressive baseball player that gets after it out of the box, and it allows him to create hits and take bases where the numbers may not give him credit. His 2023 wOBA of .354 was nearly 40 points higher than his .318 xwOBA.

If the Red Sox decide to go with him there, Duran profiles like an old school leadoff hitter. He’s very fast and aggressive on the base paths, and hit for a solid average last season. His strikeout rate and walk rate were below average, but his ability to create extra bases with the ball in play made up for it. His competition next year for leadoff and CF will likely be prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, who led off in 16 games and played CF in 17 games after Duran’s injury. Another thing to note with Duran in the leadoff spot is his aggressiveness. His 51.5% swing rate last year was well above average, as was his 33.3% chase rate.

The good news with his aggressiveness is he was effective. His 86.5% zone contact rate was great, showing when he swung at the right pitches he was able to hit them. He was also exceptional early in the count, as the tweet from @Brooks_Gate shows Duran was the best hitter in the majors in 0-1 counts last year.

He also excelled at hitting the first pitch, slashing .458/.460/.771 for a 1.231 OPS on the first pitch of at bats. The Red Sox likely don’t want him swinging early in the count too often if he’s going to lead off, so they may like him lower in the order if this trend continues.

One thing I really like about Duran is there are very few holes in his swing. He was average or better against all pitch types last season, and his R/L splits only show a substantial difference in power. He gets the bat to all parts of the zone well, and is overall a pretty polished hitter.

He also hits the ball harder than you’d typically expect from a player who is so fast on the bases. His max exit velocity of 112.6 mph and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph were both above average, but there are flaws in his batted ball profile. He hits the ball on the ground more than you’d like, but with his speed this may not be the worst thing. He also doesn’t pull the ball as much, with all 3 sides of the field seeing at least 28% usage on his spray chart. We typically use these metrics for power output, but so much of Duran’s power is wrapped up in his base running. Batting average on balls in play (or BABIP) is often used as a “luck” metric for hitters, where hitters with a high BABIP are expected to regress back to normal. Duran’s .381 BABIP last season was the 8th highest among hitters with 300 plate appearances. For Duran however I think apart of this, again, is due to his speed. On ground balls last season, Duran hit a whopping .294. This is a really high number and may come down a bit next season, but I wouldn’t expect it to come crashing down due to his ability to run.

Some of these yellow flags like the groundball rate and chase rate would bother me more on a typical player, but Duran is just such a baseball player. He runs hard and forces the defense to make a play every time the ball is put in play, and is just overall a joy to watch play the game. Many Red Sox fans seem to be down on their 2024 outlook, but if anything Duran should make it fun to show up to the ballpark or turn on the TV.

2024

Next season projections for Duran all see him taking a major step back in batting average. They also project around the same number of stolen bases as in 2023, despite over 150 more plate appearances with ATC and The BAT X and 200 more with Steamer. I think these projections are severely underrating Duran’s ability to turn batted balls into hits and extra bases, as well as steal bases. If Duran keeps his SB rate similar to last season, he should easily clear 30 SB with >500 PA and end up likely in the 35-40 range. It’s not hard to imagine Duran putting up a slash line like .280/.330/.450 that combined with the playing time projected above could push his counting stats closer to 90 R 20 HR 70 RBI 35 SB. These would be stellar numbers for a player whose ADP is currently well over 200 on sites like Yahoo (259.5) and ESPN (246). The cost is next to nothing, going around the 20th round in 12 team leagues near players like Austin Hays and Alex Verdugo who have much larger playing time concerns. Many people have likely written Duran off or will get excited by some shiny new toy late in their drafts, but will pass right over a guy with a chance at 500 plate appearances and a chance to lead off. I could easily see Duran being a player many are kicking themselves for forgetting about come mid-season.

Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of Low Three Quarter Media. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.

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