By Coleman Smith
Welcome to Under The Radar, a new miniseries where we’ll take a look at prospects we love who seemingly aren’t getting that love from everyone else. The loose rules are that we’ll do one player from each team, and that player will usually be ranked outside of both Fangraphs and Pipeline’s top 5 for that team. Prospect rankings used for this article are 2023 rankings unless noted otherwise. Enjoy reading!
Atlanta Braves: Jhancarlos Lara (20th Pipeline, NR Fangraphs; RHP, 2025 ETA)
Jhancarlos Lara came from relatively nowhere to earn a promotion to A+ Rome at just 20 years old in 2023. The youngster had made 9 starts in 2022 in rookie ball but struggled with command, walking over 7 batters per 9 innings. Last season he improved on the walks a bit, and took another step forward with his stuff, finishing second among 20 year old or younger starters in K% at 33.1%. His K-BB% would also rank fourth in that age bracket coming in at 20.9%.
When Lara signed with the Braves in 2021, they gave him just $10,000. This was due in part to him already being 18 at the time, but also because the organization was still under international signing restrictions due to the work of Frank Wren as their GM.
Despite signing at a more advanced age, Lara’s arsenal has shown polish. He possesses a fastball that sits around 95-98 mph and has touched 99, as well as a slider that can generate over 3,000 rpm. The fastball has also been measured up to 20 inches of IVB (induced vertical break), which is absolutely elite. The changeup hasn’t featured much, but he could likely survive off the fastball/slider combo at higher levels. His mechanics are fluid and repeatable, with a smooth arm action that creates easy velocity.
The Braves have shown no tendency whatsoever to consider service time when advancing prospects. They’re one of the most aggressive organizations in baseball at moving prospects through the minors and testing them at higher levels, and we could see a similar ascension with Lara in 2024. There are likely some arms that will debut ahead of him, namely Hurston Waldrep, but with injuries or surprise regression from guys on the roster he could get a cup of coffee at the end of the season and try to push for a spot in 2025. The Braves have been very good at developing arms, and Lara could possibly be their next exciting project.
Miami Marlins: Javier Sanoja (Marlins 16th Pipeline, 14th Fangraphs; IF, 2026 ETA)
Coming in at just 5’7 150 pounds, Sanoja is a very small player who will likely rely on speed to stick at the big league level. What also excites me about Sanoja however is his discipline. Since walking more than he struck out in the 2022-23 Venezuelan Winter League, he has posted a K/BB ratio right at or above 1.0 in each of his stops. He combined this with a .298 average during the 2023 season, showing a hit tool as well as eye.
While he stole 37 bases last season, he was also caught a whopping 22 times. This is a terrible CS% and likely signals he needs to be running less, or at least work on getting better jumps. For a player with such a small frame, his ability to swipe bases will be important as he likely has little raw power.
Sanoja is currently in Spring Training as a Non-Roster Invitee, and at the time of writing this has 4 at-bats with a stolen base.
The high leg kick and small stature remind me a bit of Jose Altuve, but Sanoja has a long way to go before he posts the power numbers of Altuve. Sanoja likely ends up a speed and defense player at the big league level, and could carve out some fantasy value if his glove buys him volume at the plate with an ability to steal bags.
New York Mets: Christian Scott (12th Pipeline, 4th Fangraphs; RHP, 2024 ETA)
This one isn’t quite as “under the radar” as the rest of the players in this article, but I thought Scott was a guy that needs to be talked about. Despite finishing with the best K-BB% ratio in the minors last season (min 80 IP), Scott wasn’t ranked among MLB Pipeline’s top 10 RHP prospects for 2024. Fangraphs moved him up to the Mets top 5 prospects in their 2024 initial rankings, but I think he should be among the top pitching prospects in the game.
Scott didn’t impress in 2022 after being drafted in the 5th round out of the University of Florida in 2021, but there were glimpses of greatness. The strikeout rate was high, but the walk rate was as well. In 2023 he cut the walk rate from 8.4% to just 3.6%, all without sacrificing strikeouts. This would result in him pitching at three levels before finishing the season in AA. Scott will be 25 years old in 2024 and should make his debut at some point this year barring injury, likely beginning the season in AAA.
Scott did receive a non-roster invite to Spring Training so he’ll be in camp with the big leaguers this spring. His fastball has been up to 98, and his slider shows ability to miss bats consistently in the mid 80s. He also throws a sinker in the mid 90s that elicits weak contact. The changeup sits in the mid 80s and is thrown mainly to lefties. Scott occasionally mixes in a curveball, but the pitch isn’t standout.
Philadelphia Phillies: TJayy Walton (19th Pipeline, NR Fangraphs; OF, 2027 ETA)
Formerly going by TayShaun but now TJayy, Walton was taken in the 4th round of the 2023 draft out of prep IMG Academy. Originally from Virginia, Walton’s older brother attended Old Dominion University before going JUCO.
Walton has a massive 6’3 225 lb frame that projects for lots of power. He has already flashed some of the power potential, posting a 111.4 mph exit velo at the MLB Draft combine. Walton showed out in a short Florida Complex League debut in 2023, posting an OPS over 1.200 in just 17 plate appearances. While he hit the ball hard in this stint, the Phils noticed something in his swing, with his hands getting out in front of his barrel too much causing him to hit the ball on the ground.
He’s been working with Phillies hitting director Luke Murton on a “small swing adjustment” designed to help Walton lift the ball more without necessarily focusing on it. Murton told the Philadelphia Inquirer about Walton “if he successfully gets his barrel behind the baseball, then he’ll naturally get more balls in the air without trying to do that.”
Murton also mentions that “for the most part, he swings at the right pitches”. For athletic power hitters, swing decisions and poor launch angles can be the downfall of many with high ceilings. Walton’s pro sample size is too tiny to draw conclusions from, but 6 strikeouts in 17 plate appearances would certainly be a high rate. Assistant GM Preston Mattingly has said he will work at all three outfield spots this season, so it will be interesting to see where he sticks long term. If he comes out in 2024 making good swing decisions and hitting the ball in the air, this could be one of the fastest rising prospects in the big leagues.
Washington Nationals: DJ Herz (16th Pipeline, 15th Baseball America; LHP, 2024 ETA)
Note: Herz was still in the Cubs system at time of last Fangraphs update.
DJ Herz arrived in Washington as part of the Jeimer Candelario trade at the deadline last season. He was successful in the Cubs organization, earning Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021. Herz has been a strikeout machine at every level of the minors, posting >30% K% at each level he’s played so far. Unfortunately this has also come with a high walk rate, around 14% at all of his stops longer than 3 starts. After the move to Washington his K% would jump 6% with a slight dip in walks, and this would carry over to a stint in the AFL.
In the Arizona Fall League he would post a 34.2% K% and improve to a 12.3% BB%. The high walk rate still led to a 1.29 WHIP, but he’s showing improvement. He was also named the Nationals only representative in the Fall Stars Game after posting a 3.71 ERA in 5 starts.
In terms of arsenal, for Herz it starts with the changeup. Many have called it the best in the Nats system, and it creates swing and miss regularly. In an interview with Jack Vita from SI’s Inside the Cubs, Herz described the pitch as a Vulcan change. He also throws a 4 seam fastball, “spike curve”, as well as a slider. The cutup below comes from @Milb_Central on Twitter, and features all of his pitches on display. The fastball sits around 91-94 and tops out at 96, with the change and slider in the low 80s. The spike curve sits in the upper 70s, but his arm slot likely will lead to more slider success.
The Washington Post’s Andrew Golden wrote a great article on how Cubs senior pitching coordinator Corey Jacobsen suggested a grip adjustment to the changeup that would take the pitch to the next level. The new grip, shown on the right, turned the pitch into a Vulcan change and allowed Herz to have success with the pitch.
Herz has been added to the 40-man by the Nationals, and will be getting innings in Spring Training. Despite not being one of their top prospects, he could possibly get some starts with the big league club this season. While his command may lead to him being boom or bust, the upside is exciting.
Herz worked a scoreless inning with 2 K’s in his first Spring outing, getting a strikeout off the fastball and changeup. The changeup still looks fantastic and is the best pitch in his arsenal.
Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of Low Three Quarter Media. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
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