Welcome to Under The Radar, a new miniseries where we’ll take a look at prospects we love who seemingly aren’t getting that love from everyone else. The loose rules are that we’ll do one player from each team, and that player will usually be ranked outside of both Fangraphs and Pipeline’s top 5 for that team. Enjoy reading!
Chicago Cubs: Michael Arias (#14 Pipeline, #8 Fangraphs; RHP, 2025 ETA)
Michael Arias broke out for the Low-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans in 2023 after struggling to throw strikes in ten 2022 starts. His walk rate improved from >25% at both levels visited in 22 to ~14.5% at both levels in 23. However, the 37.2% K% at Myrtle Beach is the reason we’re talking about Arias.
Arias possess a very low arm slot that’s deceptive for hitters, but has also led to some of his command issues. His fastball sits 94-96 and gets up to 98 with great sinking action. The pitch has plus plus potential and was rated a 65 by Pipeline.
His slider sits in the mid 80s and possess great sweeping action to create swing and miss to right handed hitters, but Pipeline described it as “inconsistent”. This pitches development will likely be key to Arias sticking as a starter, as his fastball may project as more of a soft contact pitch than a swing and miss pitch.
Arias also throws a changeup that he throws harder than a typical changeup, sitting in the upper 80s. For him to stick as a starter, he must learn to command all three of his pitches against higher level hitters. The stuff is good enough that he could end up in the bullpen if he can’t cut the walks, but the ceiling for Arias is very exciting.
Cincinnati Reds: Carson Spiers (NR Pipeline, #23 Fangraphs; RHP, 2024 ETA)
Spiers arrived with the Reds after going undrafted in the shortened 2020 MLB Draft after a career at Clemson University that saw him amass 19 career saves across a four year career out of the bullpen. After working out of the pen in college, Spiers would begin working primarily as a starter in his first couple of professional seasons. After some struggles at AA in 2022, he’d work out of the bullpen again in 2023 where he found success again after some pitch shape adjustments. He would finish out 2023 making two starts and four appearances for the Reds, and after getting an invite to Spring Training could be in the mix to get meaningful innings in Cincinnati in 2024.
When Spiers was brought to Cincinnati, Kyle Boddy was the team’s Minor League Director of Pitching Initiatives/Pitching Coordinator. While Boddy and the Reds mutually parted ways at the end of the 2021 season, Spiers continued to be a player he advocated for on Twitter. The below screenshots all come from a thread Boddy wrote about Spiers right before he was called up to the majors in September, linked here.
One thing that immediately stood out to Boddy was Spiers’ work ethic. While he wasn’t necessarily the high stuff/high ceiling player front offices typically ooze over, he had positive reviews from everyone that had worked with him from the college level and up.
Boddy laid out some clear goals Spiers needed to work on after entering the Reds organization. This was not an under-scouted player that popped immediately after being signed. He would have success out of the bullpen during 2020’s instructional league games, prompting some buzz within the organization leading into 2021.
After altering his pitch shapes and converting to a starter, Spiers broke out in 2021, advancing to A+ early in the season and posting a 28.6% K% with a 8.1% BB% and 3.64 ERA in 16 starts at that level. Spiers would struggle a bit in 2022 at the higher levels, but figured things out in 2023 and made his Reds debut at the end of the season.
Spiers possesses a 5 pitch arsenal that lends itself to him starting games. By Driveline’s stuff+ model, three of his pitches grade average or better, with two pitches grading slightly below average. He pitched in 3 Spring Training games this season, going 8.2 innings with 2 earned runs allowed and an 11/1 K/BB ratio. While he will begin the season in the minor leagues, Spiers could easily be making starts in Cincy in 2024 with injuries or poor performance from the back end of the rotation.
Milwaukee Brewers: Luke Adams (#16 Pipeline, #16 Fangraphs; 3B/1B, 2026 ETA)
Luke Adams was selected by the Brewers in the 12th round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of high school, a round where most prep players tend to honor their college commitments. He ended up signing for the equivalent of 6th round money and proving why with an OPS over 1.000 in his first 27 professional games in 2022.
Adams has struggled to move up prospect boards despite good numbers, maybe in part due to his unorthodox swing. Adams uses an extremely high leg kick to generate power and hit fly balls, which he managed to hit plenty of in 2023. The leg kick however is so extreme that many project it to cause issues at the higher levels, despite Adams posting a 22.5% K% last season. His ability to lay off bad pitches (17.3% BB%) and ability to steal bases (30 SB) have many excited about his possible fantasy output.
Despite the slightly different swing mechanics, Adams has excelled to this point thus far in pro baseball. The Brewers also employ another hitter with a similar leg kick in Joey Weimer who has reached the big league level, so it appears the Brewers are content letting hitters keep the swing that’s most comfortable for them if they produce.
If he wants to stick in the lineup, Adams will have to prevent his strikeout rate from jumping at higher levels like Weimer’s. While Adams’ rate is similar to this point in his career, Weimer began striking out at a much higher rate at AA and higher. If he can continue to limit strikeout while having great plate discipline, Adams’ speed and power should be plenty to make an impact at the big league level.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft (7th Pipeline, NR Fangraphs; RHP, 2024)
Braxton Ashcraft has spent some years in the Pirates system, arriving via the 2018 draft from Robinson HS in Texas. He has a big 6’5 frame and good athleticism on the mound that he uses to command the ball well while still creating whiffs. Ashcraft’s time in pro ball has up until this point been defined by injuries. It started with a dislocated non-throwing shoulder in 2019, which was followed by knee surgery in 2020. His 2021 season was then interrupted by a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the entire 2022 season as well.
Ashcraft was finally able to log a full season in 2023 in which he made 19 starts but threw just 52.2 innings. Ashcraft has thrown in 3.2 innings so far in Spring Training, and the pitch shapes are promising. His fastball has averaged 96.6 mph with 16.6 IVB and 7.8 HB. Ashcraft’s most interesting pitch is his slider, which has averaged at 89.5 mph with 3.9 IVB and -1.9 HB. This is a very hard gyro slider which averages around the same velo as Bobby Miller and Sandy Alcantara’s sliders.
Ashcraft will likely still be limited in 2024 since his IP max in pro ball was 53 IP in 2019. The back end of the Pirates rotation however is wide open, so we probably see Ashcraft in Pittsburgh at some point this season. The hard throwing right hander will begin the season in the minors, but should act as serviceable depth for a Pirates team looking to make the transition from rebuild to competing. While other youngsters like Jared Jones and Paul Skenes will also be competing for starts, I think Ashcraft has the ability to make an impact as well.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ivan Herrera (NR Pipeline, #7 Fangraphs; C, 2024 ETA)
Ivan Herrera initially made his major league debut back in 2022, appearing in 11 games for the Cardinals. He struggled in the majors and AAA that season at the plate, and was reassigned to AAA in 2023. He would find success there in 2023, hitting .297 with a 77/75 K/BB ratio and 10 homers in 83 games. He was recalled to the majors again at the end of the season and appeared in 13 games this time, but retains rookie eligibility heading into 2024.
Herrera was ranked the #4 prospect in the Cardinals system in 2022, but was removed from the list in 2023. His defense has been improving, but won’t be the reason he breaks into the lineup in 2024. While Willson Contreras will be the Cards primary catcher, Herrera could find work in a backup role and occasionally fill in at DH.
Herrera participated in the Carribean Games this year where he hit .400 in 27 PA with 2 homers and a 1.306 OPS and was named a Caribbean Series All Star. Throughout the tournament, Herrera was posting above average exit velocities and routinely barreling the baseball. Barreling the ball has never been an issue for Herrera, as the graph below from @TJStats shows.
Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of Low Three Quarter Media. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
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