Low Three Quarter Media

By Josh Bookbinder

With this being the first season in which LTQM has had a full off-season of articles, I’ve been very curious to see if I was right on some of the things we’ve talked about. It’s now over a month into the new baseball season, and sample sizes are starting to get to the point where they may mean something. I’m going to take a look through and use the ol’ Foolish Baseball breakout rating system: ++, +, =, -, or –.

Owen Caissie (Josh)

Owen Caissie’s first 38 games have been a little bit odd. One of the things that was exciting about Caissie was power potential: he had 55 extra base hits and had a .519 slugging in 2023. That hasn’t shown up yet, as he only has 12 XBH and a .423 SLG. However, he is continuing to show a much-improved hit tool, batting .277, as well as finding his way to first base at a .417 clip. He’s also begun to eliminate concerns of platoon splits, as his numbers are now identical on both sides. However, the lack of power thus far makes this one only a marginal win for me. Verdict: +1

Biggest Risers – Owen Caissie

Chandler Simpson

Here’s what I wrote about Chandler Simpson last September:

Simpson’s projections seem way more in line with the dead-ball era. His OPS should hopefully sit around the high-.600s to low-.700s, with an abysmal slugging number driving them down. He hits for average and finds ways on base, and then causes absolute havoc when he gets there. So far in pro ball, he alone is stealing bases over a 0.8 a game clip, and also seems to take extra bases and advance in an old-school way.

Through 27 games, he’s currently showing an OPS of .759: check. He has an abysmal slugging number, as he has 36 hits and a single one is for extra bases: check. He hits for average, .330+ right now: check. He’s stolen 27 bases in 27 games: check.

Looks like I nailed this one. Keep an eye on Simpson, because he’s about to be your old-school uncle’s favorite player the second he finds his way to the Rays. Verdict: +2

Dead-Ball Baseball, 2023: Chandler Simpson

Shintaro Fujinami

I didn’t really make any predictions about Fujinami, but I did remain hopeful that someone could help him harness his wildly exciting and excitingly wild stuff. He was cut loose from team control by the Orioles and jumped on with the Mets, which may be a good place for him. However, he hasn’t gotten the chance to show anything yet; he’s been on the 15-day IL since Spring Training. I can’t penalize myself for that, but I don’t get a win either. Verdict: neutral

What’s Going On With Shintaro Fujinami?

Hurston Waldrep

Here’s my first swing and a miss, largely because this guy hasn’t been able to get them. I predicted Waldrep would be one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball thus far, and it just hasn’t happened. While I guessed he would start the season in AAA, he’s instead struggled in AA. His run prevention has been pretty good (3.90 ERA, 4.50 R/9), and that’s skewed by a poor first two starts where he got shelled for 10 runs in his first 7 innings; after that, he’s allowed 5 (3 earned) in his last 23.

However, his peripherals aren’t great. There were concerns he would end up a reliever because of walks and command issues, and his 25 K/14 BB in 30 IP so far isn’t a great sign. a K/9 of 7.5 is concerning, to say the least. It’s early to judge him, but I think with the praise I lauded on him, Waldrep is a tentative L for me. Hopefully he can right the ship and get back to what he has the potential to be soon. Verdict: -1

Banana Split: Hurston Waldrep and the best pitch you haven’t seen yet

Will Warren

Mr. Spin Cycle had a good spring training at big league camp, leading to some discussion of him making the team. However, Luis Gil was better, and Warren was sent back down to AAA, where he’s scuffled a little so far.

Similar to Waldrep, he had a horrific first start. Warren’s, however, was even worse, as he lasted 1 out, walked 3, and allowed 5 runs. He’s been better since, allowing 13 runs in 33 innings with a 9.7 K/9 and a 5.14 K/BB. His biggest issue throughout the season has been homers, as he’s allowed 8 in 33 innings and has a 1.40 FB/GB; that’s a scary sign when you have to pitch in Yankee Stadium, where fly balls in the wrong places can turn into pretty awful stat lines.

Warren has plenty of time to turn it around and there’s no rush to bring him up to the bigs at this time. I think Warren is probably a neutral until we can see what direction he trends through the summer. Verdict: neutral

Tornado: Will Warren and Spinning to Win

Vinnie Pasquantino

The Pasquatch is doing his thing. What thing is that? Roping doubles (12 in 40 games), walking (19) more than he’s striking out (18), hitting an acceptable amount of homers (5), playing Royals baseball (5 sacrifice flies), and being a wonderful human being (lots of viral moments on Twitter). His OPS+ is sitting at 118, which is a good place for him to be, and he’s playing outstanding defense at first (97th% OAA). He’s doing exactly what I asked him to in my pre-season article, and I’m happy to see him succeed for a really fun Royals team. Still waiting on that oppo homer, though… Verdict: +1

Baseball’s Weirdest Bomber and His Non-Prospect Path – Vinnie Pasquantino

Teoscar Hernandez

If I have to hear my fantasy league-mate who got to Teoscar before me say “thanks for the article” one more time, I’m gonna lose it. I was spot-on with everything I predicted for Teoscar. I said he’s going to continue to mash lefties, and if he can find a way to be merely fine vs. righties he’ll be in business; that’s exactly where he is right now. I said he’ll probably flip from road-dominant splits to home-dominant thanks to a much friendlier hitting environment in Dodger Stadium, which is exactly what has happened. But the biggest early victory lap I have to take with Teoscar is my home run prediction.

I said that Dodger Stadium was a great place for Teoscar to hit and that he’d likely see a massive home run boost if nothing else, and boy was I right. Teoscar is currently tied with Shohei Ohtani for 3rd-most homers in the majors. However, according to Statcast, his xHR would be lower in EVERY OTHER BALLPARK. Dodger Stadium has singlehandedly returned Teo to being himself. The craziest thing about it is that I think there’s more room for him to improve; his overall slash still shows a little room to improve to match his better years. Big time win, other than the fact that I didn’t get him in fantasy. Verdict: +2

Fantasy Outlook – Teoscar Hernandez

Mitch Haniger

Oops. Here’s what I said:

Look, I’m not going to say that Haniger is a lock to return to his 39-homer or 139 OPS+ peaks. I’m also not going to say that he’s going to stay on the field for the Mariners. I don’t think either of those are realistic expectations for him.

However, I am saying that he’s someone to watch out for a little bit. In fantasy leagues, particularly deeper redrafts or keeper leagues, he’ll likely be very cheap to pick up as a speculative add. If a return home and some recovery time are all he needs, I wouldn’t be surprised to at least see him be a value add for a team that needs as much production as they can muster, and for fantasy owners who could use a good month or two before some sort of likely IL stint.

Through 39 healthy games, Haniger has hit .197/.258/.338/.596, good for a 74 OPS+. Here’s hoping he turns it on soon, but as for right now, he’s doing the two things I thought he wouldn’t do: stay healthy and play bad. Verdict: -2

Player Profile: Mitch Haniger

Cam Fisher

My most recent player article is perhaps also the weirdest season so far.

Fisher in April: .242/.373/.597/.970, 6 HR, 4 2B, 4 SB

Okay, we’re cooking. He’s looking the part of the guy I hoped he was. The sweet swing is swinging. He’s hitting 3 homers in Asheville. He’s surprisingly swiping a couple bags for fun. A .970 OPS is even more than expected. Great start!

Fisher in May: 40 PA, 11 BB, 0 H, 4 SB, .000/.275/.000/.275

JUMP SCARE.

What the hell happened? Fisher’s OPS has dropped all the way to .746, average all the way to .165. It’s nice to see him still walk and run, but there’s no reason for him to be bringing a bat the the plate right now. This is a slump out of the deepest fears of hitters.

It’s really hard to judge him because of his April from hell, so I’m going to say the jury’s still out on Fisher. But man, let’s find him a slump buster of some kind, Giambi’s gold thong or otherwise. Verdict: neutral

Conclusions

I end up +3 on my 9 players, with 4 total positives in that mix. I’ll take that for now, and I think I like where we’re at. Coleman will likely do one of these soon as well, and I’m curious to see who’s going to be winning. Overall, I’m proud of the LTQ Crew. Hopefully, we can see even more improvement moving forward.

Josh Bookbinder is a writer for and co-founder of LowThreeQuarter. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.