Low Three Quarter Media

By Coleman Smith

Kutter Crawford – Boston Red Sox

2023 Stats: 31 G 23 GS 129.1 IP 4.04 ERA 25.6% K%/6.8% BB%

Steamer 2024 Projections: 26 GS 137 IP 4.71 ERA 21.9% K% 7.5% BB%

Kutter Crawford is expected to hold down the 4th rotation spot for a Red Sox team that will be looking to bounce back from consecutive 78-84 seasons in which they missed the playoffs both times (Fangraphs). Last year’s version of the Red Sox showed promise on the offensive side of the ball finishing 11th in runs scored, but the club will be losing both Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency. If the Sox want to improve in 2024, they will need to improve on their 22nd ranked SP ERA and their 20th ranked RP ERA. 

In 2023, Crawford bounced between the rotation and bullpen, making 23 starts in 31 appearances. The Red Sox will likely have to lean on Crawford for innings in 2024 with Chris Sale turning 35 and the departures of James Paxton and Corey Kluber. Kutter showed a glimpse of what the Red Sox will be searching for in his final 3 starts of the season, going 17.1 IP with a 2.60 ERA and 32.8% K%/4.7% BB%. 

Kutter features 6 pitches, mixing up his usage based on hitter handedness, which led him to generate relatively even R/L splits in 2023 (.664/.675 OPS against). To right handed hitters, he features less fastballs, increasing his sweeper/slider usage up to 12.3%/10.4%, while only throwing the splitter 2.2% of the time. Both the sweeper and slider carry a well above average SwStr%, as well as above average xwOBA. The sweeper does however come with an above average barrel rate for a sweeper, suggesting the xwOBA may be propped up by the swing and miss. Crawford’s slider combo is not your typical gyro slider/sweeping slider in that their velocity’s are nearly identical. A gyro slider is normally thrown harder than a sweeper, with a different spin that causes it to break sharply vertically, while the sweeper is slower breaks more east to west. Kutter’s sweeper typically drops about 2-3 inches more than his slider, while breaking horizontally about 6 inches greater on average. In combination with his cutter, he uses these breaking pitches extremely effectively to create swings and misses and keep hitters off balance. Kutter’s Cutter usage doesn’t fluctuate all that dramatically, and while the pitch was only slightly above average in things like SwStr% and xwOBA, it does rank 8th in Fangraphs Stuff+ metric among players with at least 120 IP last season.

To left handed hitters, Crawford cranks his 4 seam usage up to 42.6%, and the pitch posts some extremely impressive numbers under the hood (league averages in parenthesis): 17.1% SwStr% (10.7%), .196 xwOBA (.346), 4% Brl% (10.3%). He also drops the sweeper/slider in favor of the Splitter (13.2%). The splitter is not incredibly effective on its own, posting poor swinging strike numbers and below average xwOBA and Brl% for a Splitter. The splitter profiles more like a split-change, with around 8 inches of arm side break. If you treat the splitter as a changeup, the numbers listed above are closer to average than as a splitter. Crawford’s curveball is his most uninspiring pitch, with below average SwStr%, xwOBA, and Brl% against all hitters. The pitch is thrown slightly more to left handed hitters, but performs about the same.

The most important pitch in Kutter’s arsenal may very well be the 4 seam fastball. The pitch is effective against righties, but is dominant against left handed hitters and allows Crawford to achieve the splits shown earlier. The fastball is special not due to its velocity, but its shape. Crawfords fastball averages 19 inches of vertical movement and almost 9.5 inches of horizontal movement, as well as generating a 94th percentile spin rate. The 19 inches of vertical movement would place him 10th in average 4 seam vertical movement among players that threw at least 250 fastballs last season. Among those top 10, he also has the highest average horizontal movement by 1.32 inches. This shape causes his fastball to appear to rise and run away from left handed hitters, which he exploits to his full advantage with his location. 

By keeping his fastball up and away from left handed hitters, Crawford plays off his unique movement profile to generate a very high whiff rate and prevent hard contact despite around league average velocity. His usage of the pitch is perfect given his movement profile, and may be just as important.

Crawford uses his repertoire very effectively, throwing pitches that move away from both right handed and left handed hitters, and showing he has knowledge of how to use those pitches to their fullest potential. Crawford could certainly be a pitcher that outperforms projections in 2024, as Steamer is projecting a drop in his K% and a rise in his BB%. With a current NFBC ADP of 257.4, it won’t be tough for Crawford to outperform his draft position if he’s able to stick in the rotation.