If this was eight years ago, Will Warren would be at the top of everyone’s prospect lists. He has a tool that no one else in the minors does, and that evaluators in 2015 would have lost their minds over: he can spin it.
Fangraphs makes note on their board of spin rate for pitching prospects, and a simple click can sort by high->low. You can do it for fastballs, where you find Will Warren at the top of the list at around 2750rpm — or in other words, 200rpm higher than anyone else on the list. You can also do it for breaking balls, where you’d find Will Warren again up at 3300 — or in other words, 200rpm above anyone else again.
Now, we know that raw spin rate isn’t the only thing that matters for a pitcher. All sorts of metrics come into play when figuring out the effectiveness of a profile; indeed, that’s why it’s a profile, and not one number. However, Warren’s more than just his absurd spin rate number.
MLB Pipeline notes that Warren didn’t start throwing that filthy slider until he got to the Yankees org, which watching some of the ones unleashed in that video, is shocking. It’s the first thing that jumps out; even though scouting services don’t call it by that newfound “sweeper” moniker like the video above does, it seems to have some violent horizontal movement. You can see it especially on display in this video:
Both Pipeline and MLB.com mention that it lives in the 84-88 range, which would mean that it only has 3-7mph difference from his primary fastball, a sinker that sits 91-93, which I take as a positive when it has that kind of movement.
Speaking of that fastball, Pipeline mentions two distinct fastball shapes, a sinker at 91-93 T95 and a 4-seam up to 97. Fangraphs notes that his fastball movement profile is sink/tail, but actually watching his starts shows movement inconsistency but also flashes of command of both a sinking movement and a separate tailing ride. If those good moments are the two fastballs at work, the shapes are distinct, which would be a huge positive.
His other offerings are not nearly as impressive, but they are serviceable. Pipeline talks about a slower, high-spin (shocker) curve and an inconsistent changeup, and Fangraphs also mentions a cutter. How those develop will be a key piece to watch as he moves into next year; ideally, you’d love to see those strikeout compilations include some swings and misses on a pitch other than the fastball and slider.
Warren comes from a small school background having gone to Southeastern Louisiana from 2018-2021, where he had a mixed bag of results. He didn’t come into his own until the COVID-shortened 2020 season, where he fired 23 innings of 1.90 ERA ball, and then followed that up with 91 innings at 2.57 with 95 K’s and a 1.055 WHIP. It was impressive enough to get him drafted in the 8th round in 2021, and he hit the ground running in A+ and then AA that season.
Coming into 2023, Warren was a 23-year-old in AA. Eric Longhaven noted a violent delivery and a concern that Warren may end up a bullpen piece in his preseason breakdown of Yankees prospects. Now after the season, it’s clear Warren is a starter and a promising one. He threw 99 2/3 innings in AAA with a 3.61 ERA and a 9.9 K/9. I disagree with Longhaven on the delivery front; Warren is no Gerrit Cole in terms of efficiency, but his movements don’t look incredibly violent. At times, he even looks pretty smooth, albeit with a little extraneous movement. With even more development, I’d be excited to see what Warren can do in AAA next year.
MLB.com has Warren as low as 8th on the Yankees prospect list, which isn’t particularly stacked with top-end talent. Fangraphs has him at 4th, which is better, but still not as indicative of you’d think of a guy with a standout tool and a track record of some success. Expect Warren to rise, particularly in dynasty leagues, and despite the Yankees’ timidness with prospects, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a chance to make a difference soon. The Yankees aren’t known for their stellar record of health, and Warren is 24 with his aforementioned 99 AAA innings under his belt. Should he continue to be effective moving into the summer, expect the normally injury-plagued Yankees to consider Warren for a call-up.
In the scouting world, one tool isn’t enough to make a player a real prospect. It’s enough to stand out, but there needs to be more there to truly get a player hype. Coming out of college, the tornado that erupts from Will Warren’s hands was a tool, but it wasn’t a particularly glaring one, and it was the primary thing to be excited about with him. Now, Yankees pitching development has helped him get to a point where he’s a real prospect. It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.
Josh Bookbinder is a writer for and co-founder of LowThreeQuarter. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
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