Low Three Quarter Media

Joe Ryan was stellar before pulling his groin while warming up for a start in June. He kept the injury to himself and tried to play through it, but after struggling through the next month and a half he hit the IL in August. If Ryan stays healthy, he could put together a full season that surprises a lot of people.

Triston Casas was one of the best hitters in baseball in the second half last season. Some may be expecting a sophomore slump, but I think Casas clears 30 homers easily this season.

Anthony Volpe posted a 20-20 season that went somewhat under the radar last year due to an ugly slash line. After winning a Gold Glove, Volpe will get volume at the plate and if he can he something closer to .250 than .210 I think he’s in for a huge year.

Who are three players you like for the year (players you think are going to outperform their ADP fantasy-wise)?

Christian Walker continues to be unheralded, and continues to provide elite 1B production at a fraction of the cost of the biggest names.

Rhys Hoskins is going to get a ton of run in a Brewers lineup that needs power, and he can likely provide it. He’s greatly undervalued coming off of a lost year.

Edouard Julien is 28% started and 70% rostered in Yahoo, and I believe he could be one of the better 2B producers in the league.

CJ Abrams has been centered around some changes he made in the second half last year in which he started pulling the ball more and hitting it in the air. Those changes did lead to more power, as Abrams hit 11 of his 18 homers after the All Star break. The reason for my skepticism however comes from how the Nationals develop players. The organization still has an old school philosophy, wanting pitchers to throw strikes above all else and hitters to use all parts of the field and not try to lift. Many are projecting the changes made last season over a full season, but I think Abrams ends up around 15 homers 45 stolen bases and a poor slash line once again.

Nick Castellanos posted his highest K% over a full season (not counting 2020) since he’s been in the league last year. That number held above 27% again in Spring Training, suggesting Castellanos may be beginning the decline phase of his career as he enters his age 32 season. Despite this, he’s being drafted in the top 100 on Yahoo still, and I see this being a pick managers regret during the year.

Who are two players you dislike for the year (players you think are going to underperform their ADP fantasy-wise)?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is being drafted like the guy who hit 48 homers and had a 1.000+ OPS, but we haven’t seen that guy since 2021. Sure, there’s a chance he comes back with a vengeance, but an MLB The Show cover isn’t going to fool me into thinking that chance is more than just that.

The Dodgers gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto $300m before throwing an MLB pitch, and fantasy players are drafting him with the same confidence. I’m not quite that sold. Picking him above guys like Zac Gallen, Pablo Lopez, George Kirby, Logan Webb, Max Fried, and Framber Valdez just gives me pause.

Tigers prospect Colt Keith signed a 6 year extension before playing a single major league game this off-season, and has now made the Opening Day roster. Kieth has good plate discipline, and slugged 27 homers last season to pair with his .306 average. Playing time should be plentiful with the Tigers having already locked up Keith’s arbitration years, and as you’ll see below I’m pretty high on the Tigers this season. I’m not sure if he’ll take home AL ROY, but Colt Keith should be an impactful contributor for a Detroit team looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

Who is a prospect you think will make a major-league fantasy impact THIS year?

Jackson Holliday will be making an impact this year. No sh*t, Sherlock.

If you’re in need of a first baseman, Michael Busch is going to hit. He’ll have a decent leash on the Cubs next year as well, where he’s quickly becoming a fan darling. Look to him for some cheap offense this season.

Coby Mayo and Chase DeLauter. Both are high impact bats that didn’t quite make their Opening Day rosters, but shouldn’t have to wait long for the call. Mayo has huge power potential and has been compared to a young Austin Riley. The Orioles are going with Ramon Urias at 3B to begin the season and Mayo is likely behind Jackson Holliday on the call-up order, but his bat is ready and should be high impact when the O’s decide to give him a chance. DeLauter is a left handed hitting outfielder from the 2022 draft that has done nothing but rake in pro baseball. He’s only logged 57 games to this point due to a fractured foot during the 2023 offseason, but posted impressive plate discipline and exit velocity numbers in them. Delauter also shined in Guardians Spring Training before being sent down, and should have an opportunity to make an impact at the big league level before too long.

Who are a couple prospects you think will make a major-league impact this season?

Ceddanne Rafaela is a big one for me. His bat may be average-graded, but he raked in AAA last year. He’s one of the best defensive prospects around and will be on the field somewhere at all times, so if he hits he’ll be great for the Red Sox.

I also love Chase DeLauter, who may help a Guardians team out that needs some more fun in their lineup. His swing is pretty, and as long as he touches the ball, it’ll be going somewhere moving quickly.

Finally, Kyle Harrison is going to get some run for the Giants this year. He’s got great stuff, but he’ll have to perform to stay up on a Giants team that expects to compete this year. I’m betting on him to find a way to do so.

I’m not very high on Pete Crow-Armstrong. The defense is awesome and the speed is impressive, but there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game that also stands out to me. He’s carried a K% at or near 30% at every level above AA so far, and struck out 29% of the time in Spring Training. The glove is stellar and should buy PCA plenty of time in the bigs, but I’m not sold on the bat ever making an impact for the Cubs.

Who is a prospect you just don’t see the hype on, and think might fall in the rankings?

Maybe I should’ve saved this for a “bold predictions” question, but here’s one that’ll cause some waves: I’m not a huge fan of Ethan Salas. I think he’s incredibly advanced for his age, and the Padres are doing a fun thing pushing him along aggressively. However, I think that the novelty and excitement of a 17-year-old in AA is clouding judgement. He’s good, no doubt, and I think he’ll be a big leaguer, but I’m not quite sold he’s the top-10 in baseball guy we’re being sold. Then again, he is only a junior in high school.

My pick here is the Seattle Mariners. They come in at 18th on Pipeline’s farm system rankings, and I think that’s seriously underselling the potential of some of the guys in this organization. The farm is led by young left handed hitting middle infielders in Cole Young (#37) and Colt Emerson (#87) as well as catcher Harry Ford (#38), but bats like Lazaro Montes and Felnin Celeste could see themselves move into the top 100 with a strong 2024. As for arms, Emerson Hancock will likely begin the season in the Mariners rotation after the injury to Bryan Woo, and minor leaguers Logan Evans and Brody Hopkins are lower ranked pitchers to watch. The Mariners farm is beginning to build depth that will be important for the organization moving forward.

What team’s farm system is really underrated going into the season?

I have to agree with Coleman on this one. The Mariners system is really fun and deep, and the track record of development there is only more reason to be excited.

The Baltimore Orioles obviously have a ridiculous farm, but I wouldn’t quite call them underrated. Everybody is aware of the talent coming to Baltimore, and soon.

I’ll throw a vote in for the Texas Rangers, who have both a World Series championship to defend and an embarrassment of riches on the way. Wyatt Langford will be getting a taste of major league action by the time this article is released, but there’s plenty more to be interested in at the top of this system.

Jared Jones of the Pirates had a really good spring and seems to be on track to take the Pirates 5th starters spot. He’s thrown 120+ IP each of the last two seasons in the minors so workload shouldn’t be an issue. Jones throws 4 pitches with a fastball that averaged at 97.6 mph this spring, with his slider sitting around 88.5 mph. Stuff models drool over his arsenal, and with the Pirates looking ready to take a step forward in 2024 Jones could be in line for a sizable workload.

Who’s your wild out of nowhere pick to make waves in some way this year?

Luis Gil had an electric spring and is going to get a chance to start for the Yankees coming off of a lost Tommy John season. If his spring is any indication, he will be an incredibly fun watch. He may not be out of nowhere entirely, but he’s got the upside to be one of the more exciting parts of this season for the Yankees.

I also cannot WAIT to look at Dane Dunning’s new forkball. There’s hardly any coverage of it, but the soft-tossing Ranger added the new pitch this off-season and quietly has built it into a big part of his arsenal, if reports are to be believed. If that’s for real, he may explode onto the scene.

Colt Emerson will begin the season as the #87 prospect on MLB Pipeline, but I believe he finishes the season in the top 30. Emerson’s pro debut was impressive, posting low K rates and displaying an impressive hit tool, hitting .374 across 24 games at two levels. The power hasn’t shown itself yet, but this will be Emerson’s age 18 season so there’s plenty of room for growth. Emerson also stole 8 bases without being caught, as well as walking over 13% of the time at both levels.

Who’s a prospect you think finishes the season ranked significantly higher than their preseason ranking?

I’ve already written about him, but Hurston Waldrep at 85th overall feels absurd to me. A guy with a unicorn pitch and unreal strikeout potential, the only thing holding him back is control. I think he shows some and rockets to a blue-chip prospect this summer.

Here’s one that’s more of a deep cut: Luke Shliger, an undersized, defense-first 6th-round catcher out of Maryland for the Giants. Call me biased if you want; I’ve known Luke since middle school. But don’t call me wrong, because the numbers pop. His slash line of .336/.523(!!)/.582/1.105 explodes at you, as there’s not a long list of guys who got on base more than HALF of their plate appearances. If that keeps up in pro ball, look for him on prospect lists, and soon.

My pick this season is the Braves over the Orioles. This may seem biased as a Braves fan, but both of these teams have the talent as well as the depth to make a push deep into October. The Braves plugged LF with a Kelenic/Duvall platoon that should be more than serviceable, and the acquisitions of Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale shore up the back end of a rotation that is also flanked by young players who are more than capable filling in for spot starts. As for the O’s, moves for vets Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel add reinforcements to a roster chock full of young talent. The Orioles are busting at the seams with top prospect hitters waiting to make their debut, and could possibly use some to make a move for another arm mid-season. In a 7 game series however, I think the Braves superior lineup depth and rotation talent win out and bring Atlanta another championship.

Let’s get the big one out of the way. What’s your World Series prediction? Who over who?

Out of the AL, I think there’s only a couple true championship-caliber teams. The Orioles, Astros, and Rangers are the chalk, while the Mariners, Twins, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays likely live on the periphery. I think out of those teams, the Rangers can repeat as AL champs, probably meeting up with the Orioles in the ALCS. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go the other way though.

The NL is a little murkier. The Braves and Dodgers are wagons in a league above everyone, including all of the AL teams. After that, the DBacks, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are all interesting and have a ton of ability. The NL Central is also interesting, but mostly for being young and wild or old and boring. Give me the NLCS to decide the World Series, and the Braves to beat the Dodgers in 7.

Finally, give me the Braves over the Rangers in 5, with a Clayton Kershaw bullpen appearance at some point in the series.

I see the Tigers surprising people and going over the current 80.5 wins line. The rotation should be very solid after the additions of Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, who has looked great in Spring Training. They also have pitching depth, with Jackson Jobe expected to debut at some point and Matt Manning being sent down to start the season. If their young lineup (5/9 projected starters less than 2 years of service time) can take a step forward, this team could push to win the AL Central.

What team do you think is going to out-perform their current O/U for overall record?

The Arizona Diamondbacks are being blatantly disrespected left and right. This is a young, athletic, exciting team coming off of a World Series run. It killed me not to choose them for the World Series this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re my 2025 pick when the Braves and Dodgers chill out a little. Sure, they have to play in a brutally tough gauntlet of a division, but I don’t think this team is scared of that. Like Talkin’ Jake says, they play for rings in the desert. Give me over 84.5.

I think the Dodgers expectations are a little inflated after the moves they made this off-season. The defense on the left side of the infield is going to be poor, with Mookie Betts adjusting on the fly to playing SS full time and Max Muncy not providing much at the hot corner. They’re going to hit for sure, but the rotation is beginning the season with multiple players who could be key contributors injured. Some of the guys will likely struggle coming back from missed time, and the Dodgers defense isn’t likely to do them any favors.

What team do you think is going to under-perform their current O/U for overall record?

105 wins is asking a hell of a lot from any team, even a superteam in Hollywood. 31 teams in the history of baseball have ever done it, so setting the line there is insane. The early-season is going to be a little difficult for them, as Coleman pointed out, and while I think 100 games is a likely scenario, 105 is pretty lofty. Give me the Dodgers under, even if they’re in my World Series.

NL – Fernando Tatis Jr. – While he had a down year at the plate coming off offseason shoulder surgery, Tatis still took home the Platinum Glove award, given to the leagues top overall defender. With a full offseason to allow the shoulder to heal, I think Tatis could have an Acuña like post-injury bounce back and hit 40 homers again while playing exceptional defense. Tatis also ran more last season, meaning 40-40 could be in his sights as well as an MVP.

AL – Bobby Witt Jr. – Witt Jr. took a major step forward in his sophomore season, posting a 30-49 season and increasing his wRC+ to 115. Maybe just as importantly, he dramatically improved his defense, posting 14 Outs Above Average (OAA)-which was 98th percentile-after a -11 OAA season in 2022. If his defense stays at the 23 levels and the bat takes another step forward, I think Witt Jr. has a great chance at taking home MVP honors in his 3rd season.

Who are your MVP picks for this season?

NL – Ronald Acuña Jr. – Run that back turbo! The only thing stopping Ronald Acuña from adding another MVP to his trophy case is his own health. If he’s on the field, I don’t think there’s any reason he’s not the MVP.

AL – Aaron Judge – Give me this one homer pick. It’s the same idea as Acuña, if he’s on the field he’s winning it. His WORST outcome when healthy is something in the neighborhood of 5 WAR and 35 home runs.

With those two picks, I’m very confident that I’m going to go at least 50% right. If both can manage to stay healthy, I’m definitely nailing both.

NL – Spencer Strider – In his first full season starting MLB games in 2023, Strider showcased the stuff that allowed him to reach the big leagues after just 94 minor league innings. While he was plagued by home runs and bad lack that ballooned his ERA, all that is behind him now. A new curveball has been added to the repertoire as he searches for a true 3rd pitch, and results this spring were exciting. The potential has been evident from the moment he stepped foot in Atlanta, now it’s time for Strider to put it all together and prove himself as the top starter in the National League.

AL – Logan Gilbert – A good amount of hype has centered around the 3 guys at the top of the Mariners rotation heading into this season, with most of the focus on Luis Castillo and George Kirby. Gilbert has a chance to surprise this season however after adding a cutter this offseason. His fastball was his hardest hit pitch last season, so the cutter should allow him to keep hitters off his fastball while still allowing his splitter and slider to thrive. If things align for Gilbert I believe he could take another step forward to being one of the best pitchers in the league.

Who are your Cy Young picks for the year?

NL – I do think that Spencer Strider is going to win the NLCY, but I’m going to also place a contingency pick in the mix as well. If not Strider, I think Logan Webb’s got a great chance to have a special year. A groundball pitcher who munches on innings, the addition of platinum glover Matt Chapman over at third should be a huge help to him. Expect Webb to have a great year and it to be a close race between those two.

AL – I’m going with a Mariner like my fellow editor. He said that most of the focus is on Luis Castillo and George Kirby, and I think the former is going to make it his year.

NL – Yoshinobu Yamamoto – This one shouldn’t be very much of a surprise. Yamamoto was posted this offseason after amassing a 1.82 ERA and 922 K’s in 897 innings in NPB. While Yamamoto was roughed up in his first start for the Dodgers in Korea, stuff models still love his arsenal and expect him to adapt well to MLB.

AL – Wyatt Langford – Langford has rocketed through the Rangers system after the defending World Series champions selected him 4th overall in the 2023 draft. After posting an OPS over 1.000 at every level of the minors and in Spring Training, the Rangers announced Langford would be on the Opening Day roster just 9 months after drafting him. If Langford continues to display the tools that lead to his success to this point, I think he beats out other favorites like Jackson Holliday and teammate Evan Carter.

Who are your ROY predictions?

NL – Call this a cop-out all you want, but my pick for NL ROY is literally anybody but Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I think he’s going to struggle, and I think there’s going to be growing pains. He’ll still be good, no doubt, but there are too many really exciting NL rookies this year. Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, Jordan Lawlar, Pete Crow Armstrong, River Ryan, Masyn Winn, Kyle Harrison… The list goes on. I’ll take the field, whoever the field ends up being.

AL – Wyatt “Pete Incaviglia” Langford is unreal, but I’m going to get creative again for my AL ROY pick. Give me… the Orioles. Yeah. Any of them. Could be like six different options, but the AL ROY is going to be wearing orange.