By Coleman Smith
With most teams finishing their first couple series and traveling for their next weekend series, I thought it’d be a great time to take a look at the (very) small sample of games so far and see if we can identify early performers who have made changes that could stick over a full season. Many of these are young players trying to make adjustments, but some may have been around a bit longer and have made a noticeable adjustment to their game that could make them a better player. I’d recommend grabbing these players if available in your fantasy leagues, and holding onto them if you’ve already got them. Let’s get started!
Hitters
Maikel Garcia
Garcia excelled at hitting the ball hard and making swing decisions last year in his first full season, but often hit the ball hard on the ground, leading to just 4 homers over 515 plate appearances. So far this year however, Garcia has made strides to improve his launch angles without sacrificing exit velocity, leading to 6 extra base hits and 3 homers in just 27 plate appearances so far. Garcia also possesses a standout glove at 3B and above average speed that allow him to hit leadoff for the Royals. This is an exciting young player in an ideal situation who looks to have made changes to his approach to chase more power. Garcia has never hit more than 11 homers in a season in pro ball, but with the adjustments he’s made a 15 homer – 30 stolen base season should be within the realm of possibility. I’m buying this breakout as legit so far.
Henry Davis
The former #1 overall pick debuted last season for the Pirates and had some struggles. He visited the player development lab Driveline this off-season to improve his bat speed, and the work seems to be paying dividends. Davis has already set a new career high max exit velocity (typically important for evaluating hitter raw power) at 111.5 mph after topping out at 109.9 last year. Another exciting shift is his plate discipline. Davis’ K% typically sat around 18-20% in the minors, but ballooned up to 27.1% in his debut in 2023. Over a very small sample in 2024 this number has fallen to 16%, but more exciting is cutting his chase rate from 31.3% in ’23 to 18.6% in ’24. If the discipline changes are legit, Davis could be ready to show why he was the first player off the board in 2021.
Jung Hoo Lee
So far, Jung Hoo Lee has looked like every bit the player he was promised to be and more, striking out just four times in 33 plate appearances while also placing among the league leaders in extra hard hit rate.
Hoo Lee has played CF and lead off for the Giants in every game so far this season, so there should be plenty of volume and runs scoring opportunities for him. He smacked his first homer of the season on Saturday, and if he can continue hitting the ball hard should easily surpass the mediocre power numbers he was projected for. He was caught stealing in his first attempt of the season, so there may not be a ton of speed to his game. He’s making great swing decisions and limiting swing and miss while making hard contact, all formula’s for having success at the plate. I think Lee has a great season for the Giants and makes fantasy owners very very happy.
Christopher Morel
Morel is another player with exciting power potential but concerns with his approach. There’s also a longer track record of poor swing decisions with Morel as his K% was typically in the upper 20s in the minors and has run above 30% in his two shortened stints in MLB. Morel’s chase rate sat at 31% in these two seasons, but so far in ’24 he’s cut this back to 16%. He’s still consistently mashing balls over 100 mph, so it doesn’t appear these changes have come at the expense of power either. Morel has always hit the ball hard, but if he can make his improved swing decisions stick, we could possibly see him hit closer to .260-.270 rather than .240-.250.
Anthony Volpe
The Yankees shortstop quietly turned in a 20-20 season in his rookie year last year due in part to a .209 batting average. He swung at missed at an above average rate, and it led to a high strikeout rate that suppressed his average. Volpe seems to have made some sort of adjustment, as through 6 games his contact rate has increased (71.8% -> 85.7%) as well as his in-zone contact rate (81.1% -> 96.4%). He’s also chasing less, down to a 19.2% rate from 30.7% in 2023. These adjustments are major and could lead to Volpe running a K% closer to 20% like he did in the lower minors rather than the 27.8% number from his rookie season. He’s already showcased an ability to put the ball in the air as well as run the bases and play defense. Volpe has often been described as a high work ethic player, and I feel he takes a major step forward this season and becomes an important regular in the Yankees lineup.
Pitchers
Jared Jones
Jared Jones surprised many by coming out and dominating in Spring Training, earning a rotation spot many thought would go to Luis Ortiz or Roansy Contreras going into camp. He popped on stuff+ models, and that carried over into his first outing of the season against the Marlins.
Jones’ fastball pops, but the slider and changeup also grade out as above average offerings. While he mainly leaned fastball/slider in his debut, the arsenal also features a much slower curveball in the upper 70’s to keep hitters off balance. The fastball and slider each generated a whiff rate over 40% which led to a whopping 22 swings and misses. The potential for Jones is sky high, but he’ll be tested by a deep Baltimore Orioles lineup in his next outing. If he weathers that storm, Jones will prove he is legit.
Brady Singer
This one is a little more of a longshot. This will be the former first rounders fifth season in the bigs, but the right hander hasn’t had a ton of success so far. He was solid in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA across 153.1 innings, but was unable to build on that success as he stumbled to a 5.52 ERA in 159.2 innings in 2023. Very little hype remained coming into 2024, but he excelled in his first outing against the Twins, striking out 10 amid 7 scoreless innings. The reason my confidence in Singer is shaky is he didn’t make THAT drastic of a change. From Thomas Nestico’s pitcher summary below, we can see Singer may be attempting to split his sinker off into a separate 4 seam and sinker.
His sinker got absolutely hammered last season and he rarely throws the changeup, so adding another pitch that he can throw to lefties is important. This outing against the whiff happy Twins may end up being the best of his season, but the Royals have great defense behind him and Kauffman is easy to keep the ball in the ballpark. I think Singer is a great add in points leagues because the volume should be there (150+ IP last 2 years) and he’s capable of having outings like this, but if you need wins the bullpen is bad and the lineup likely won’t score a ton of runs. I think Singer has a season close to his 2022, but I’m not sure he’ll be garnering any Cy Young votes.
Garrett Crochet
Many were surprised when Garrett Crochet, who had never started a game of professional baseball, was named the White Sox Opening Day starter. The doubters have been quickly silenced however as Crochet has turned in 2 very effective outings so far while also showcasing an ability to pitch deep into games. Crochet has pitched 6+ innings in each of his starts, striking out 16 to just 1 walk and allowing just 2 earned runs. The second outing came against a stacked Braves lineup and he didn’t falter a bit, throwing 7 innings of one run baseball allowing 3 hits and picking up the win. Crochet gets great extension and stuff models love his arsenal, especially the slider. He also added a cutter this year that gives him a weapon against right handed hitters, which should prevent him from having splits issues. The team context isn’t great as the White Sox are awful and likely won’t provide much run support, but I’m buying all the Crochet stock I can get right now.
Shane Bieber
He went to Driveline. Maybe the favorite sentence for any fantasy baseball player to hear when talking offseason pitching. Players typically visit Driveline to increase velocity or work on their pitch shapes, and Bieber was no different. After taking home the Cy Young Award during the shortened 2020 season, Bieber experienced a swift decline as his velocity began to drop and his stuff diminished. He posted a 41.7% K% in 2020, with 30+% seasons in 2019 and 2021 as well, but dropped off to 25% in 2022 and just 20.1% in 2023. His 3.80 ERA was a career high since his rookie season, and it appeared the 28 year old was past his prime. He’s come into this season a new pitcher however, with his velocities nearing their 2021 numbers and his stuff making a return. His slider, changeup, and cutter are creating swings and misses, and he’s not being hit nearly as hard. Shane Bieber is a great pitcher who has always had command, he just needed to create more swing and miss. I think the changes he made this offseason hold up and Bieber continues having a great season.
Shota Imanaga
When Shota Imanaga was posted this offseason, much of the hype was on fellow Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Imanaga signed for just $53 million over 4 years, nothing to scoff at but a far cry from the 12 year $325 million dollar mega deal signed by Yamamoto. Age plays a factor as Imanaga is 30 compared to Yamamoto being 25, but the average yearly salary is also more than double Imanaga’s. Imanaga looked like the steal however in his first outing, blanking Rockies hitters over 6 innings while striking out 9 without a walk and allowing just 2 hits. His fastball shape has always popped on stuff models despite the poor velocity, but his sweeper and splitter also performed well in this outing. He generated 20 swings and misses, with 12 of them via the split finger. Imanaga has a much bigger test against the Dodgers looming this weekend, and if he can weather that he’ll officially be a guy to have.
Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of Low Three Quarter Media. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
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