Early in the season, many pitching prospects showcase large jumps in stuff or command that can lead to them becoming breakout prospects. These are the prospects we like so far to become this years group of breakouts!
George Klassen – RHP – Philadelphia Phillies
Klassen was selected in the 6th round of last years draft, falling primarily due to command issues that led to a 17.9% walk rate and 5.72 ERA in his second season at Minnesota. But with a fastball that averaged around 98 mph and occasionally flirted with triple digits, the Phillies decided to take on the project to hopefully unlock his full potential.
| GS | IP | ERA | K | BB | K% | BB% | |
| 2024 | 3 | 15 | 0.00 | 24 | 4 | 45.3 | 7.5 |
With pitch data and stuff+ numbers available from Thomas Nestico, we can see that Klassen’s arsenal features a 4-seam, cutter, and curveball. All three of his offerings grade above average by tjStuff+, a metric based on the velocity and movement features of the pitch. Klassen’s curveball is thrown especially hard, with only 6 pitchers in MLB with a faster average velocity (min 25 pitches). The cutter’s movement profile is similar to that of a gyro slider, but is frequently thrown in the low 90s.
This hard cutter/slider is an equally interesting pitch because of the high velo and it’s ability to create swing and miss. It’s whiff rate has been over 50% in each of his three starts, and Robert Orr from Baseball Prospectus noted his pitch model rated it higher than Orion Kerkering’s sweeper.
Klassen was named the Phillies #29 prospect by MLB Pipeline to open the season, and that ranking should quickly rise. He opened the season with the Phillies low-A affiliate, but the call to high-A should be coming soon. Klassen was already named in an article from Geoff Pontes of Baseball America as one of the Top 20 Breakout Pitching Prospects for 2024, so the accolades have already begun to roll in.
Patrick Reilly – RHP – Pittsburgh Pirates
Similar to George Klassen, Reilly was a mid-round draft pick, being taken in the 5th round out of Vanderbilt in last years draft. Reilly also struggled with command and posted a poor ERA in his final season in college, and made 9 appearances out of the bullpen for the Pirates low-A affiliate at the end of 2023. Some thought he would make a full time transition to a reliever, but Reilly has started 3 games so far in 2024 for high-A Greensboro.
| GS | IP | ERA | K | BB | K% | BB% | |
| 2024 | 3 | 11.2 | 6.17 | 21 | 4 | 44.7 | 8.5 |
Reilly hasn’t had as much surface level success this season, but the strikeout and walk numbers are very enticing. Reilly’s inflated ERA also contains a lot of early noise, being hurt by things like a .350 BABIP, 39.2% LOB%, and 28.6% HR/FB%. Using tjStuff+ numbers from the Pirates Spring Breakout game, Reilly’s 4-seam and slider grade out well above average, with an average cutter and below average changeup and sinker rounding out the arsenal.
While the early results in A+ haven’t been fantastic, the pitch grades are promising and the command improvements exciting. Reilly’s fastball and slider will be enough to carry him at the lower levels, but if one of his other pitches improves he could become the next exciting pitcher to be produced by the Pirates development system.
Jaden Hamm – RHP – Detroit Tigers
Jaden Hamm was another mid-round selection in the 2023 draft, being taken in the 5th round by the Tigers after 3 seasons at Middle Tennessee State. Hamm also struggled his final season in college (noticing a trend here?), posting a 5.31 ERA and 10.4% walk rate.
| GS | IP | ERA | K | BB | K% | BB% | |
| 2024 | 3 | 11.1 | 0.79 | 20 | 1 | 43.5 | 2.2 |
Hamm made 5 starts between rookie ball and low-A after being drafted last season, throwing 12 scoreless innings in which he allowed just 4 base runners and struck out 12. He’s off to just as fast of a start this season after a promotion to high-A, allowing just a run in 3 outings with an absurd 20/1 K/BB ratio. Hamm was unranked in the Tigers system to begin the season by MLB Pipeline, but I don’t think that will last very long. His arsenal features a fastball that can sit around 93-96 and has been measured at 20 inches of induced vertical break (IVB), which is elite ride for a 4-seam. He keepers hitters off balance with a low-mid 80s changeup and curveball.
Hamm now has 8 starts and 23.1 innings pitched in professional baseball with just 1 earned run allowed and 32 strikeouts to 2 walks. The Tigers have been producing solid pitching prospects recently, and Hamm quickly looks like he belongs in that group.
Santiago Suarez – RHP – Tampa Bay Rays
Santiago Suarez originally signed as a 17 year old with the Miami Marlins in June 2022, but was then traded to the Rays in November of that same year. Suarez excelled in both rookie ball and low-A in 2023 for the Rays, but the strikeout numbers were low.
| GS | IP | ERA | K | BB | K% | BB% | |
| 2024 | 3 | 16 | 1.13 | 19 | 1 | 34.5 | 1.8 |
Suarez was reassigned to low-A again to begin 2024, and the stuff appears to have taken a step forward. Suarez was higher rated to begin this season than the others on this list, coming in at #9 on the Rays top prospects list according to MLB Pipeline. He’s also younger than the others on this list as this will be just his age 19 season. The Rays have a history of great prospect trades, especially from other teams complex teams, and Suarez could be next on that list.
Suarez’s best pitch is a mid-upper 90s fastball with plenty of ride that he routinely locates at the top of the zone to create swing and miss. He also throws a big breaking ball that keeps hitters off balance and creates plenty of whiffs. At the end of the clip below, he throws what the play-by-play man calls a 91 mph fastball, but the pitch appears to have some cutter/gyro slider type break. It’s possible this is a third pitch, but further analysis with velo readings or movement numbers would be necessary to be sure. Regardless, Suarez appears to be taking another step at a young age for a team known for pitching development, and I’m keeping an eye on him as the season progresses.
Coleman Smith is a writer for and co-founder of Low Three Quarter Media. See more of his work and others’ work on the site through the links at the top of the page, or explore another recent article linked below.
Low Three Quarter Media 
Leave a comment